02.22.2001
SEMI's book-to-bill sees fifth month of decline in January

• Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International's (SEMI) reported a book-to-bill decline for the fifth consecutive month in January to 0.81, down from 0.99 in December 2000. Overall bookings decreased sharply by 20% MoM and 37% for the 3-month period ending January, reflecting the general trend for CAPEX cuts.

• On the front-end side, SEMI reports bookings were down 21% MoM in January and 37% for the 3-month period ending January, while shipment saw slight growth of 2.1% MoM. On the back-end side, bookings slid 19% MoM and 37% QoQ, and shipment further declined 17% MoM and 29% QoQ.

• The semiconductor industry witnessed an overall 36% decline in bookings since the peak of October 2000. From a historical perspective, we may still be on a cyclical ride to bottom. The 1998 downcycle saw a spread between peak and trough of 71% over a 10-month period, and the 1996 downcycle saw a spread of 54% and 7 months. With January's 36% decline and 3-month spread since last October's peak, it appears we are still a long way from the real bottom of the current cycle.

LindaLiu@Primasia.com +886-[0]2-2547-8867