02.23.2001
Slowdown in global demand continues to dampen exports

• It was announced yesterday that export orders were down 4.6% YoY and 16.7% MoM in January to US$10.4b.

• Electronics was the only sector to post positive growth, up 11.9% YoY. Telecommunications was down 14.2% YoY, while textile orders fell 17.1%. Orders from the US, accounting for 33% of total exports, declined 4.7% YoY after posting 15.8% growth in 2000. Orders from Hong Kong were down 9.9%; only orders from Japan posted positive growth with 11.5%.

• Lower demand for Taiwanese products pushed the industrial production index down 14.0% YoY and 15.5% MoM, the largest drops since January 1993. The manufacturing index saw a 14.7% YoY slide, while the information and electronics index contracted 17.2% YoY. The construction index posted the largest fall with 25.5%.

• Weak global demand will continue to dampen demand for Taiwanese products for the rest of the year. We predict export growth of 5.0% in 2001 and retain our 4.5% GDP growth forecast.

IrmakSurenkok@Primasia.com +886-[0]2-2547-8873