05.15.2001
Once again, it's gloves off for RDRAM and DDR

• We gathered three key points from yesterday's Rambus Developer Forum. RDRAM costs are trending down, Intel's endorsement of the RDRAM platform is unchanged and RDRAM is still expected by the industry to become a non-mainstream memory solution by 2003.

• Major hurdles preventing RDRAM’s acceptance by the market include the following: (1) RDRAM's die cost is expensive compared to that of DDR; (2) RDRAM-capable packaging and testing equipment involves high costs and uncertain market opportunities, so there is a lack of motivation for backend manufacturers to invest in it; and (3) PCB costs are higher as a result of the higher impedance control requirements associated with RDRAM.

• Rambus and its technology partners are aggressively working on cost reduction measures at the device, module and system levels. At the device level, 4i bank architecture is expected to reduce the die size and cost difference between RDRAM and SDRAM to 5% and 10%, respectively. Rambus' engineering sample will be out by the end of the quarter, and DRAM vendors are expected to start production by year-end. At the module level, the 6-layer RIMM module PCB solution is already released and the 4-layer version will be released in 4Q01. At the system level, Taiwanese manufacturers expect to roll out 4-layer i850 motherboards by 4Q01.

• On the backend side, Meicer (unlisted) recently forged an alliance with Rambus in setting up the first packaging and testing line in Taiwan.

• Intel has reiterated its strong endorsement of RDRAM, while setting the launch date for the Brookdale DDR chipset to as late as 1H02. Several downstream players we talked to indicated that Intel's schedule is also influenced by the immature and unstable DDR infrastructure.

• Despite the generally bullish opinions aired on RDRAM at the conference, Samsung, which commands a 50% RDRAM market share, says it still expects SDRAM/DDR to become mainstream, and is ready to get into DDR once the market takes off.

• VB Primasia Opinion: Taiwan's DRAM manufacturers are not eager to move into RDRAM. Winbond (2344 'Hua Bang Dian') expects to have RDRAM samples this month, making it the first local DRAM vendor to get into this field. Meanwhile, although Powerchip (5346 'Li Jing') could license RDRAM through Mistubishi (JP), it has no plans to do so. ProMOS (5387 'Mao De') and Nan Ya Technology (2408 'Nan Ya Ke Ji') are committed only to DDR.

LindaLiu@Primasia.com +886-[0]2-2547-8867