07.04.2001
More bad economic news to be released soon

• Development: We forecast a 0.2% YoY fall (but up 1.0% MoM) in the CPI, resulting in flat YoY inflation for 2Q01, down from 0.6% growth in 1Q01.

• Analysis: The absence of inflation continues to keep real interest rates above December 2000 levels, when the CBC first started cutting rates. We believe there is still room for further cuts.

• Primasia View: Early next week, we expect the government to announce a 21% YoY fall in exports, and a 22-25% fall in imports. The rate of contraction in exports may bottom out in July due to seasonal factors, but we expect exports to continue to register double-digit decline until at least November.

IrmakSurenkok@Primasia.com +886-[0]2-2547-8873