07.23.2001
DRAM: Sector Update: ProMOS cuts 01 forecast, others to follow

• Development: ProMOS’s official updated 01 forecasts reflect a revenue cut of 23%, or NT$15bn in total revenue, a net pre-tax loss of NT$1.6bn.

• Analysis: Forecast implies 2H01 ASP of around US$2.80 on 128Mb. Contract price for 128Mb SDRAM is US$1.90-2.00 for July, and we believe ProMOS’s current forecast remains aggressive. Our full year revenue and loss forecast now stands at NT$12bn and NT$4.1bn, with EPS set at NT$1.26 loss.

• Primasia View: We expect Nan Ya Technology and Powerchip to announce similar downgrades by end of August, and remain bearish on the sector’s 2H01 outlook.