09.13.2001
NB PC seasonal up-tick unlikely

• Development: Quanta and Compal both indicated that shipment delays will be limited to interrupted US flights in the short term, but hard to estimate magnitude of the impact on future orders.

• Analysis: Negative impact on Sept. revenues should be limited given that flights will resume very soon. However we are more concerned that seasonal PC demand pick-up is unlikely to materialize due to weakening consumer confidence. Sales to US market generally account for 40-50% of Taiwan NB PC makers. In addition, possible NT$ appreciation against US$ could lead to lower margins.

• Primasia View: We will revise down our 4Q01 shipment estimates but maintain our 2002 shipment projections.