09.14.2001
IEK sees further weakening in Taiwan semicon

• Development: Industrial Economics and Knowledge (IEK) Center in Taiwan has further revised estimates on Taiwan semiconductor industry revenue decline in 2001 to 26% YoY. Semiconductor manufacturing revenues are expected to drop 35% YoY in 2001.

• Analysis: IEK’s new estimates come in response to the recent terrorist attacks in the US and the possible impact on consumer confidence and the world economy. Our recent discussions with industry contacts suggest that customers are becoming more cautious on orders for 4Q01. Consequently, the quarter may see at least a 15% decline from previous expectations. Immediate issues on US shipments and bank clearances (in certain regions) are considered resolvable within days, hence there are no concerns on Sept. revenues.

• Primasia View: We expect further reduction on 4Q01 and 2002 estimates for companies in this sector.