09.20.2001
Typhoon impact immaterial, greater threats loom

• Development: Hsinchu Science Park’s semiconductor fabs seemed to have experienced minimal levels of disruption from Typhoon Nari.

• Analysis: Neither TSMC nor UMC experienced power outage or a lack of water supply. While shipments were disrupted, efforts will be undertaken later this month to ensure September revenues are not unduly affected.

• Primasia View: We believe the effect of recent US attacks pose a much greater threat to recovery of Taiwan’s IC industry than Nari. Amid low visibility, we estimate 4Q01 industry revenues could decline 15%. We maintain our current estimates on TSMC and UMC for now.