09.27.2001
Export recovery delayed beyond August

• Development: Export orders rose 5.6% MoM and the industrial production index gained 4.2% MoM in Aug. Although export orders contracted 16.7% YoY and industrial output fell 8.2% YoY, the sequential figures point to significant improvement in exports. Note that the information technology and electronics production index was up 4.8% MoM.

• Analysis: In our Macro Update from September 10 (Could exports be bottoming out?), we stated that exports would rise on a MoM basis after August as the first sign of economic recovery.

• Primasia View: However, following the US terrorist attacks as well as typhoon Nari, we are of the view that Sept. figures are likely to come in lower than in August, delaying export recovery.