09.28.2001
Taiwan’s recovery further delayed

• Development: The index of leading indicators rose 1.3% MoM in August, following a 0.1% gain in the month of July.

• Analysis: The August rise is in line with our predictions prior to the 11 Sept. events that exports, followed by the economy as a whole, could start to show signs of improvement as early as September.

• Primasia View: However, now it is a different story altogether. The US terrorist attacks continue to undermine consumer confidence in the US, limiting Taiwan’s export growth. Domestically, two typhoons in Sept. will also delay economic recovery. We expect the index of leading indicators to deteriorate next month.