10.09.2001
US attacks holding back Taiwan exports

• Exports tanked 42.5% YoY and 21.3% MoM to US$7.4bn in Sept. setting new records. Imports were down 40.4% YoY. Information technology exports led the way with a 58.5% YoY drop, followed by electronics with -51.8% YoY and textiles with -35.3% YoY. Exports to the US making up over 20% of the total slipped 46.1% while exports to Hong Kong fell 36.4% YoY. Sept. figures were distorted not only by the impact of the US attacks but also two typhoons that hit the island causing disruption in production and transportation. We forecast exports will plummet 23.0% YoY in 2001, before stabilizing in 2H01. Exports will likely show some sequential stability around July 2002, while YoY growth is unlikely to turn positive until Sept. 2002.