11.08.2001
October exports surprise

• Exports declined only 16.1% YoY in Oct. and gained an unexpected 28.5% MoM to US$11.4bn. The gov’t revised Sept. figures up to US$8.9bn from US$7.4bn. Imports also declined a less than expected 21.2% YoY and were up 24.4% MoM to US$9.7bn, resulting in a US$1.7bn trade surplus (a rise of 31.9% YoY and 54.5% MoM). The expanding trade surplus also pushed foreign currency reserves to a record high of US$116.2bn in Oct. Going forward, results will be mixed due to a combination of weak global demand and seasonality. Although exports may continue to grow sequentially in Nov., this pattern will be reversed by Dec. We maintain that we are unlikely to see stable export growth on a sequential basis until 2H02.